Euro 2024 group scenarios: How each team advances to the Round of 16 (2024)

There are 12 games to go in the group stage of Euro 2024, and with the final round of group matches featuring simultaneous fixtures, it is important to carefully select which ones to watch.

How about … all of them?

Thanks partly to the format of the 24-team event and partly to good fortune and confluence, every single remaining game has the ultimate prize or penalty attached to it.

Dead rubbers? Forget it. All 12 matchups provide the opportunity for at least one of the teams to either secure its place in the elimination bracket, or to suffer the sickening feel of an early trip home.

Only Poland has been eliminated and only Spain and Portugal are guaranteed of topping their group. While every matchup matters, there are some extra juicy ones that stand out on the schedule.

Monday's Group B action brings intrigue aplenty when Italy and Croatia meet — Luka Modrić is hoping for a final hurrah — while Albania will be wishing for Spain to rest stars such as Lamine Yamal and Alvaro Morata as it bids to stay alive (3 p.m. ET on FS1).

England can top Group C if it beats Slovenia (3 p.m. ET on FOX) but might regard seeing some better form from Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane as its top priority, while France and the Netherlands could be headed for a goal differential tiebreaker if they are able to win their respective matchups on Tuesday (12 p.m. ET on FOX).

Group E has all four teams tied on three points – you can read all the permutations and scenarios for that and every other group below. Finally, Group F's most pivotal clash is between Turkey and Czechia, with a draw or better for the Turks enough to secure second place in the group.

**Through games played on June 22nd

GROUP SCENARIOS

The top two teams in each group will advance to the Round of 16, along with the four best third place finishers.

Group A

• Germany has won the group
• Switzerland finishes as runner-up
• Hungary finishes in third with three points, and will have to wait and see if they finish as a top four third-place team

Group B

• Spain has won the group
• Italy will finish as runner-up with a win or draw against Croatia
• Italy cannot finish as the runner-up with a loss to Croatia
• Italy could advance as a third-place team if they lose to Croatia and Albania draws or loses to Spain, but would need to win third-place tiebreakers
• Italy will be eliminated if they lose to Croatia and Albania beats Spain
• Albania must win against Spain; can advance as runner-up if they beat Spain and Croatia beats Italy, but would need to beat Croatia on goal-difference; in this scenario, they can still advance as a third-place team as well (if they win third-place tiebreakers)
• Albania can advance with a win against Spain and a draw from Croatia against Italy, but would do so as a third place team and would need to win third-place tiebreakers
• Croatia must win against Italy; advance a runner-up if they defeat Italy and Albania draws or loses against Spain
• Croatia can advance as a runner-up if they defeat Italy and Albania defeats Spain, but would need to have a better goal difference as mentioned above for Albania; can still advance as a third-place team if they have worse goal difference, but would need to win third-place tiebreakers as mentioned above

Group C

• England will advance with a win or draw against Slovenia, and will win the group with a victory
• England can also win the group with a draw against Slovenia if Denmark loses or draws against Serbia; if England draws with Slovenia and Denmark defeats Serbia, goal difference will come into play to determine who tops the group
• England cannot win the group with a loss to Slovenia, but would still finish second if they lose and Denmark draws against Serbia
• England could advance as a third-place team if they lose to Slovenia and Denmark beats Serbia, but would need to win third-place tiebreakers
• England could advance as the runner-up with a loss to Slovenia and a Serbia win against Denmark
• Denmark could win the group if they defeat Serbia and Slovenia defeats England, but they would have to beat Slovenia on goal difference/tiebreakers (then Slovenia is runner-up)
• Denmark could win the group if they defeat Serbia and England draws with Slovenia, but they would have to beat England on goal difference/tiebreakers
• Denmark could advance as the runner-up if they defeat or draw with Serbia and England defeats Slovenia
• Denmark could advance as the runner-up if they draw against Serbia and Slovenia draws with England, but would have to more goals scored; in this scenario, if they have the same number of goals scored, discipline points would come into play (then qualifier rankings if disciple points are equal)
• Denmark could advance with a draw against Serbia and if Slovenia defeats England, but would do so as a third-place team and would need to to win third-place tiebreakers
• Denmark would be in third if they lose to Serbia and England defeats Slovenia, but two points would not be enough to qualify as a third-place team
• Slovenia will win the group with a win against England and a draw or loss from Denmark against Serbia
• Slovenia could win the group with a win against England and a win from Denmark against Serbia, but they would have to beat Denmark on goal difference/tiebreakers (then Denmark is runner-up)
• Slovenia would advance as runner-up with a draw against England and if Denmark draws with Serbia, but would need to win the tiebreakers mentioned above for Denmark in this scenario
• Slovenia would not finish in the top two if they lose to England, and two points would not be enough to qualify as a third-place team
• Serbia has to defeat Denmark; could advance as runner-up with win over Denmark along with a England win or draw against Slovenia
• Serbia can advance as a third-place team if they defeat Denmark and England loses to Slovenia, but they would have to win third-place tiebreakers

Group D

• France can top the group with a win against Poland and a loss or draw from Netherlands against Austria
• France can top the group with a win against Poland and a win from Netherlands, but would have to win goal difference/tiebreakers; in this scenario, the team with a worse goal difference would be runner-up
• France can top the group with a draw against Poland and a draw from Netherlands, but but would have to win goal difference/tiebreakers; in this scenario, the team with a worse goal difference would be runner-up
• France can advance as runner-up with a draw against Poland and a a win from Netherlands
• France can advance as runner-up with a draw against Poland and a loss from Netherlands against Austria
• France can advance as runner-up with a loss against Poland if Netherlands wins or draws against Austria
• France can advance as runner-up with a loss against Poland and a loss from Netherlands against Austria, but would have to win goal difference/tiebreakers; in this scenario, the team the team with a worse goal difference would be in third- and can still advance if they win third-place tiebreakers
• Netherlands can top the group with a win over Austria and a loss or draw by France against Poland
• Netherlands can also top the group with a win over Austria and a win by France against Poland, but would have to win goal difference/tiebreakers; in this scenario, the team with a worse goal difference would be runner-up
• Netherlands can win the group with a draw against Austria and a loss by France against Poland
• Netherlands can win the group with a draw against Austria and a draw from France against Poland, but would have to win goal difference/tiebreakers; in this scenario, whoever has a worse goal difference would be the runner-up
• Netherlands advances as runner-up with a draw against Austria and a win from France against Poland
• Netherlands can finish in the top two with a loss if France also loses, with goal difference/tiebreakers deciding first and second
• Netherlands can advance as a third-place team with a loss against Austria and a win or draw from France against Poland, but would have to win third-place tiebreakers
• Austria will advance with a win against Netherlands; will also win the group if they win and France draws or loses against Poland
• Austria can advance as runner-up with a win against Netherlands and a win by France over Poland
• Austria can advance as a third-place team with a draw against Netherlands, but would need to win third-place tiebreakers
• Austria can advance as a third-place team with a loss against Netherlands, but would need to win third-place tiebreakers

Group E

• Romania can win the group if they defeat Slovakia and if Ukraine wins or draws against Belgium
• Romania can advance as runner-up if they defeat Slovakia and Belgium defeats Ukraine
• Romania can advance as runner-up if they draw against Slovakia and there is a victory in the Belgium-Ukraine match
• Romania can win the group with a draw against Slovakia and a draw in the Belgium vs Ukraine match, but would also need to win group tiebreakers since all four teams would have four points each
• Romania can advance as a third place team with a loss against Slovakia if Belgium defeats Ukraine, but would also need to win third-place tiebreakers
• Romania is eliminated if they lose to Slovakia and Ukraine wins or draws
• Belgium can win the group with a win against Ukraine and a win or draw from Romania against Slovakia
• Belgium can win the group with a draw against Ukraine and a draw from Romania against Slovakia, but would also need to win group tiebreakers since all four teams would have four points each
• Belgium can advance as runner-up if they defeat Ukraine and Slovakia defeats Romania
• Belgium can advance as a runner-up if they draw against Ukraine and there is a victory in the Slovakia-Romania match
• Belgium can advance as a third place team with a loss against Ukraine and a win from Slovakia over Romania, but would also need to win third-place tiebreakers
• Belgium will be eliminated with a loss and a win or draw from Romania against Slovakia
• Slovakia can win the group with a win against Romania and a win or draw from Belgium against Ukraine
• Slovakia can advance as runner-up with a win against Romania and a win from Ukraine against Belgium
• Slovakia can advance as a third-place team with a draw, but would also need to win third-place tiebreakers
• Slovakia can advance as a third-place team with a loss and a Ukraine win over Belgium, but would also need to win third-place tiebreakers

Group F

• Portugal has won the group
• Turkey will finish as runner-up in the group with a win or draw vs Czechia
• Turkey cannot finish in the top two with a loss, but could advance as a third-place team with a loss and a draw or loss from Georgia against Portugal
• Turkey will be eliminated if they lose and Georgia defeats Portugal
• Czechia can advance as runner-up if they defeat Turkey and Georgia draws or loses against Portugal
• Czechia must beat Turkey; can advance as a runner-up if they win and Georgia wins, but would have to be ahead on goal difference; in this scenario, the team that is behind on goal difference would finish third and could still advance if they win third-place tiebreakers
• Czechia will finish in third with a draw and a loss from Georgia, but two points will not be enough to qualify
• Georgia must beat Portugal; can advance as as runner-up if they win and Czechia wins, but would have to be ahead on goal difference as mentioned above; can still still advance as a third place team if they win third-place tiebreakers
• Georgia will finish in third with a draw and a loss from Czechia, but two points will not be enough to qualify.

Group tiebreakers

• Head-to-head result
• Head-to-head goal difference
• Head-to-head goals scored
• If three teams are tied on points, then the above criteria are applied again to just those teams. If teams still are tied after that, then the following tiebreakers are applied.
• Group goal difference
• Group goals scored
• A penalty shootout would ensue if the two teams in question are playing each other on the final day
• If the two teams don't play each other, then disciplinary points would be applied
• Rankings from Euro qualifiers

Third-place criteria

• Points
• Goal difference
• Goals scored
• Wins
• Disciplinary points
• Rankings from Euro qualifiers

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.