Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (2024)

Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (1)

US equity markets extended gains this week, with the Dow Jones trading above 40,000 for the first time. These gains were supported by cooler inflation and retail sales data, which boosted expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end.

The ASX 200 locked in a fourth consecutive week of gains, approaching its record high of 7,910. These gains were bolstered by the Federal Budget, which struck the right balance between providing cost-of-living relief and not exacerbating persistent inflation. Additionally, signs of cooling in the labor market have raised the possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) before year-end.

  • In the US, headline inflation dropped to 3.4% YoY from 3.5%. Core inflation fell to 3.6%, its lowest in three years
  • Crude oil gained 0.86% this week to trade at $78.93 per barrel, bolstered by expectations of Fed rate cuts following cooler economic data
  • Gold gained 0.78% to $2379 as the US dollar and US yields eased
  • Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX index, eased to 12.41 from 12.56 prior
  • In the UK, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from January to March 2024, up from 4.2% in the prior three months
  • The unemployment rate in Australia rose to 4.1% in April from 3.9% prior
  • Australian wages rose 0.8% in Q1 2024 and 4.1% for the year, missing the 4.2% forecast
  • In Japan, Q1 2024 GDP shrank 0.5%, missing market estimates of a 0.4% fall
Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (2)
Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (3)
  • AU: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Tuesday, 21 May at 10:30pm AEST)
  • AU: RBA Meeting minutes (Tuesday, 21 May at 11:30am AEST)
  • NZ: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, 22 May at 12:00pm AEST)
  • NZ: RBNZ Press Conference (Wednesday, 22 May at 1:00pm AEST)
  • AU: Balance of Trade (Friday, 24 May at 8:45am AEST)
  • CN: Loan Prime Rate 1Y and 5Y (Monday, 20 May at 11:15am AEST)
  • JP: Inflation Rate (Friday, 24 May at 12:00pm AEST)
Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (5)
  • US: Fed Chair Powell Speech (Monday, 20 May at 5:30am AEST)
  • US: FOMC meeting minutes (Thursday, 23 May at 4:00am AEST)
  • US: S&P Global Composite Flash PMIs (Thursday, 23 May at 11:45pm AEST)
  • US: Durable Goods (Friday, 24 May at 10:30pm AEST)
Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (6)
  • UK: Inflation (Wednesday, 22 May at 4:00pm AEST)
  • EA: HCOB Flash PMIs (Thursday, 23 May at 6:00pm AEST)
  • UK: S&P Flash PMIs (Thursday, 23 May at 6:30Pm AEST)
  • UK: Retail Sales (Friday, 24 May at 4:00pm AEST)
Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (7)

Source: Getty Images

  • AU

RBA meeting minutes

Date: Tuesday, 21 May at 11.30am AEST

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s May meeting are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, 21 May at 11.30am. At its board meeting in May, the RBA kept its official cash rate on hold at 4.35%, as widely expected. Despite a higher-than-expected Q1 inflation read, the bank was less hawkish than feared as it retained a balanced bias, noting that it is not "ruling anything in or out".

The RBA revised its inflation forecasts for this year higher, leaving its inflation forecasts unchanged for the end of 2025, and the end of 2026. At the same time, the RBA revised its growth and unemployment forecasts slightly lower. The minutes will be closely scrutinised to determine what options the RBA board considered at its meeting in May; and any clues behind the bank's less hawkish than expected tone.

RBA cash rate

Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (8)

Source: RBA

  • UK

Inflation

Date: Wednesday, 22 May at 4.00pm AEST

In March, the headline annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 3.2% YoY from 3.4% prior, its lowest rate since September 2021. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, dropped to 4.2%, the lowest since December 2021.

Inflation's steady progress back towards the Bank of England (BoE)'s target has played a significant role in the bank's dovish tilt, which sees the rates market 50% priced for a 25 basis points (bp) rate cut in June with a full 25bp rate cut priced by August.

The market's preliminary expectation for this month (April) is for headline inflation to ease to 2.7% YoY and for core inflation to fall to 3.6%. If correct, this should increase the chances of a rate cut in June.

UK inflation rate

Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (9)

Source: TradingEconomics

  • US

FOMC meeting minutes

Date: Thursday, 23 May at 4am AEST

At the latest Fed meeting, US policymakers kept interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% in a widely expected move. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a high threshold for additional rate hikes, but he also highlighted a “lack of further progress” towards its inflation objective and wants to seek for greater confidence before considering rate cuts. This has been echoed by a slew of Fed officials’ comments lately, with the high-for-longer rate outlook likely to be reiterated in the upcoming minutes.

That said, the minutes may be slightly backward-looking, given that it will not factor in the weaker run in economic data following the meeting. Weaker-than-expected US job gains for April and further easing in consumer inflation this week may be perceived to offer some leeway for the Fed to consider earlier rate cuts. Nevertheless, clues will be sought from the minutes on the timeline for Fed’s cuts and policymakers’ views around the inflation and growth outlook.

Fed funds rate

Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (10)

Source: Refinitiv

  • JP

Inflation rate

Date: Friday, 24 May at 12.00pm AEST

While Japan’s March inflation data has shown some signs of cooling, pricing pressures have been staying above the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s 2% target for the past two years. Headline inflation read for March stood at 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation stood at 2.6%.

Slow inflation progress towards target may explain the BoJ’s decision to revise up their inflation outlook at the April policy meeting. For its economic forecasts, the central bank revised its FY2024 core inflation to 2.8% from previous 2.4%, while FY2025 projection was revised to 1.9% from previous 1.8%.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier said that the central bank would raise interest rates if fresh data back up its latest price forecasts or if inflation overshoots the projections. For now, expectations are for Japan’s April headline inflation to show further easing to 2.5% from previous 2.7%, which may support more patience for the BoJ in their policy normalisation process.

Japan’s inflation rate % YoY

Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (11)

Source: Refinitiv

Q1 2024 Earnings season

The Q1 2024 earnings season continues this week, with companies scheduled to report, including Zoom, Target, Lowe, Snowflake and the one everyone’s been waiting for, NVIDIA.

Release dates

Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (12)

Source: Eikon

Ahead of the game: 20 May 2024 (2024)

FAQs

What is the Wordle for May 20, 2024? ›

Today's word is NICER, an adjective. According to Webster's New World College Dictionary, it means more “agreeable; pleasant; delightful.”

What is the Wordle for May 21, 2024? ›

Today's word is DINGO, a noun.

What are the connections today, May 20th? ›

The theme is action movie directors. The answers are Bay, Carpenter, Scott and Woo.

What is the Wordle for today? ›

Here comes the spoiler: Today's Wordle answer is SWISH.

What was Wordle in 1066? ›

'Wordle' #1,066 Answer for Monday, May 20

The answer to today's Wordle is "nicer," a comparative form of "nice." The word can be used when someone wants to describe something as being better or kinder than something else.

What is the Wordle May 22? ›

Today's word is EXALT, a verb.

What is May 22 in Wordle? ›

Today's Wordle Answer for #1068 on Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Today's Wordle answer on Wednesday, May 22, 2024, is EXALT. How'd you do? Next: Catch up on other Wordle answers from this week.

What is today's Wordle answer May 21? ›

Here comes the spoiler: Today's Wordle answer is DINGO, as in the Australian wild dog.

What is the wordle? ›

Wordle is a simple game in which your challenge is to guess a five-letter word in six attempts. Each time you guess, you're told which of your chosen letters are in the target word, and whether they are in the right place. If a letter is in the correct place, it turns green.

What is today's connection on May 19th? ›

The purple words in today's Connections

The theme is fruit homophones The answers are bury, current, leachy and pair.

What is the Wordle for may 19? ›

Today's Wordle Answer for #1065 on Sunday, May 19, 2024

Today's Wordle answer on Sunday, May 19, 2024, is HITCH.

What is the word for Wordle on May 19? ›

Today's word is HITCH, a verb. According to Webster's New World College Dictionary, it means “to fasten” or “to move or raise by pulling or jerking.”

What is the daily Wordle for May 22? ›

Today's word is EXALT, a verb. According to Webster's New World College Dictionary, it means “to raise on high; elevate; lift up.”

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